Future-Casting

A friend challenged me, more or less, to make predictions about our locality for the upcoming year.

The county is feeling pressure in multiple areas. The south, particularly the Daleville area, keeps growing and creeping north. The high schools are past their fiftieth birthdays, and we have a $35 million courthouse construction project underway in the county seat.

Add to that the wind power on the mountain in Eagle Rock and its opponents, the probable Google data center at the Botetourt Center at Greenfield and the need to find water for that, along with two new supervisors, and you have a cauldron boiling that might tip over - one way or the other.

Any of the projects underway, and the ones not yet known, could change the county in ways people haven’t fully sorted out yet.

With new people on the Board of Supervisors comes new energy and the usual mix of ambition and learning curves. I've never seen new people yet take those seats and manage to do anything they campaigned on. Once in office, new leaders suddenly discover that there's a lot more to it than just yelling from a bully pulpit. Virginia is a Dillon Rule state, and that means that the county can only do what the Virginia legislature says it can do. All of those empty promises made on the campaign trail? They'll turn out to be just words.

That always happens, though. After 40 years of reporting on this kind of thing, I'm well aware that new supervisors have a big learning curve. On top of that, we've got a loud bunch of, well, complainers seems like an appropriate word - who are likely to make meetings louder and more animated, and they will continue to do so until these supervisors figure out what they can and cannot do under Virginia’s rules. 

At the same time, the county administration may see some changes in leadership, which could shake up how projects are managed and priorities are set. I for one look for the county administrator to leave. He's fulfilled his mission - Greenfield is full now and the county doesn't have a new industrial site on tap that I am aware of. With the cost of the courthouse and the needs of the school system, I don't see how the county could justify another multi-million-dollar purchase of land to prepare for another industrial park.

Especially not when they need to find eight million gallons of water for that data center. Maybe they find a new way to cool it, and maybe not. Either way, how we manage our water resources could determine how smooth - or not - that process ends up being. It may also end up being expensive.

I have a suspicion that, like the Craig Botetourt Scenic Trail (a rails-to-trails project that has been in the works since the 1970s is finally under way), another project known as Hipes Dam might get another look. That's pure speculation on my part, but if I remember that project existed, you can bet others remember it too. I think it would have to be redone to keep the new lake from wiping out the rails-to-trails project, but ultimately it would complement that if recreational tourism is a goal not only for Botetourt but also for Craig. Unfortunately, it would also wipe out a bunch of small farms and the cabins along Craig Creek.

That's in the northern end of the county. Further south, Daleville is changing fast. New apartments and some retail makes the area feel almost like a proper little hub now. However, the area is missing a fire station yet, which is starting to feel like a glaring gap. There are also rumors of a larger development near the I-81 and US 220 interchange, and if that ever takes shape, the area could look very different in just a few years.

The schools are another piece of the puzzle. Both high schools need work, if not replacement. Consolidation could modernize things, but that would put a high school near the I-81 Exit 156 interchange, feasibly, and I'm not sure that's the best place to park a high school. However, even though growth is currently mainly in the southern part of the county, between northern trails, possible dams, and whatever other surprises show up, the county might start to feel more balanced in the years ahead.

At the end of the day, none of this is set in stone. Some of it will happen, some of it won’t. What matters most is that residents pay attention, talk with each other - nicely, please - and make their voices heard. Botetourt is lucky in that it has room to grow, but our leaders must navigate the changes carefully, thoughtfully, and with a little foresight.